Thursday, March 13, 2014

The Current Marriage Equality Map

From Buzzfeed:


The linked article goes into detail on current cases in which federal district courts have ruled in favor of gay marriage or the recognition of marriage from other states in states with a ban (Ohio and Kentucky).  It is inevitable that the Supreme Court will eventually have to take up the case of whether gay marriage bans are a violation of the equal protection clause, and it is almost inevitable that they will have to rule that they are.

I'm not sure how long that process will take, but I would guess that it is fairly likely to be in the next session (ending in June 2015) or the one after that.  The Court will almost certainly address it by then, as a decision would come out at the end of June 2016, thus relieving Republicans from going into the 2016 presidential election facing marriage legalization referendums on several state ballots (including, most likely, the swing state of Ohio, and possibly Colorado, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, and maybe more of a stretch, Florida) and being on the wrong side of history. These initiatives would likely work in reverse from 2004, increasing turnout amongst younger voters, who have typically been more Democrat-leaning than their elders (although a recent poll showed the youngest are more Republican-leaning, or anti-Obama, at least until they hear the bigots Republicans love to put on the ballot).

The Supreme Court is probably the easiest out for the Republicans from the perilous position they find themselves in.  Public opinion has changed rapidly on this issue, and the quicker the Republicans can separate themselves from the prejudices of their base, the better for them.  This is not a cross to die on, in spite of so many religious conservatives seeing themselves as persecuted martyrs.

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