Thursday, June 27, 2013

Really? Farmland is Overvalued?

Jeff Kleintop says it is:
"Ten years ago you could buy an acre of Iowa farmland from around $1,000," Kleintop says in the attached video. "Last year, that went for $8,000," he says, pointing out that some recent sales fetched as much as $15,000 per acre.
While he's the first to acknowledge that farmland is in no way comparable to the size and scope of the housing crisis, he says there's more going on than just rising rates.
"It has to do with Emerging Market demand for more food," he says. "Very, very low interest rates have allowed these prices to soar." Add in a wet planting season and the fact that grain prices have actually moved lower over the past year, and Kleintop says "farmers are in the position where finances are a little bit tight."
In as much as mortgage lenders Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are dependent upon steady employment, he says the U.S. Farm Credit System is dependent upon a good harvest.
Kleintop adds, "If we see these rates continue to rise a little bit in an environment where farmers simply don't have the income to make payments, you could see a minor financial problem develop, particularly amongst Midwestern lenders with ties to farmland."
You know things aren't looking good when the story starts to shift in the mainstream media.  I agree with Kleintop that ground is way too pricy, and due for a fall.  However, I'd like to know how shitty the land was that was selling for $1000 an acre ten years ago.  Ground around here was selling for $2400 to $3000 an acre back then, and this isn't Iowa.  As investors rotate to stocks, and the commodity "supercycle" winds down, we'll see who's swimming without trunks, as Mr. Buffett is wont to say.

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