Tuesday, July 17, 2012

What Will The Drought Damage Be?

Bloomberg:
A worst-in-a-generation drought from Indiana to Arkansas to California is damaging crops and rural economies and threatening to drive food prices to record levels. Agriculture, though a small part of the $15.5 trillion U.S. economy, had been one of the most resilient industries in the past three years as the country struggled to recover from the recession.
“It might be a $50 billion event for the economy as it blends into everything over the next four quarters,” said Michael Swanson, agricultural economist at Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC) in Minneapolis, the largest commercial agriculture lender. “Instead of retreating from record highs, food prices will advance.”
The U.S. Department of Agriculture declared July 11 that more than 1,000 counties in 26 states are natural-disaster areas, the biggest such declaration ever. The designation makes farmers and ranchers in affected counties -- about a third of those in the entire country -- eligible for low-interest loans to help manage the drought, wildfires or other disasters.
Corn rose today to the highest in 10 months while soybeans increased to the costliest since 2008.
Wow.  $50 billion.  So if the government comes up with a disaster payment in October (which I anticipate) will all these big government and Obama haters turn it down?  I'm guessing no.  Meanwhile, if we have a corn shortage, will the economics and morality of the ethanol mandate come into question?  I would think that in a rational world it would.  Whether it will come into question here might be more questionable.

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