Friday, April 13, 2012

Farmland Price Growth May Slow

Reuters, via nc links:

A combination of low interest rates and high commodity prices sent levels sky-rocketing. Nebraska cropland values soared by 38 percent during 2010, while Iowa was up 28 percent and Indiana up 27 percent, say Federal Reserve regional banks.
A 160-acre farm near York in eastern Nebraska sold for $12,000 an acre in February, a record for land in the state.
Soaring prices have prompted fears of a price bubble that could ruin farmers' finances in an economic downturn. So far, farmers and lenders have been cautious and land prices are justified by likely returns.
"Our expectation would be slower growth in farmland values," said Jason Henderson of the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank and who monitors agricultural credit. Farmers have avoided dangerous debt loads, he said, and the question for the future is "how much stamina is there" for restraint in a competitive market.
Brent Gloy, agricultural economist at Purdue University, said a string of profitable years gave farmers the money to chase land when it came on the market. Prices are reaching the level that buyers need corn prices to average $5 a bushel, a historically high level, to earn enough from the land to pay for it. "The potential to get ahead of ourselves is high," he said.
"My sense is the farmland market is, hopefully, ready to slow down," Gloy said of the one-year outlook. "I don't think it's going to soften at all."
I would expect it to peak sometime soon, but the experts say otherwise.

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