Friday, March 30, 2012

Farmland Bubble Watch

Reuters, via Big Picture Agriculture:

"At the end of 2006, I took a look at the markets, didn't like what was on the horizon and decided to move into hard assets," Vieth says.
He isn't the only one betting on the farm these days.
During the last several years, investors have taken notice of the swelling prices and hearty returns that come with productive farms. Individuals and funds are increasingly seeing farmland as an ideal hard asset class.
Farmland generates not only regular income but also capital appreciation and can be used as a hedge against inflation. Another benefit: farmland returns tend to be immune to stock or bond fluctuations, making it a good diversification tool.
"A lot of people like to say 'It's gold with a coupon,'" says Chris Erickson, managing director at HighQuest Partners, an agribusiness consulting firm.
For the year ended December 31, 2011, agriculture proved the best performer among commodity-based exchange-traded products by net inflows. The asset class brought in some $3.5 billion, which raised total assets under management by 50 percent, according to IndexUniverse.
Still, investing in farmland isn't for everyone, especially in the actual land. Investors must deal with upfront costs, more complexity than a typical stock or fund and a lot less liquidity. It also takes a leap of faith considering factors outside an owner's control such as weather, seed prices and trade wars. Global factors such as the demand for ethanol or evolving eating habits are also at play.
This is a major bubble warning.  Anytime the everybody is investing in this hot market stories are running, you are in the midst of a bubble.  What will pop it?  I have no idea.  I would expect a hard landing in China is the most likely cause, making commodity prices drop precipitously.  We own a decent amount of farmland, so this is currently beneficial, but I'd also like to buy more, so these prices make that much less likely.

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