Saturday, February 11, 2012

Is Obama That Lucky?

Nate Silver:
Meanwhile, Mr. Santorum closed strongly and outperformed his polls in several states so far, including Iowa, Colorado, Minnesota, Missouri and South Carolina (where he was projected to place fourth by the polls but finished in third). That could indicate that voters like Mr. Santorum the more they get to know him — indeed, his favorability ratings are strong among Republican voters — or that his supporters are more enthusiastic. Either quality would be an asset going forward, allowing him to win his share of close calls against Mr. Romney.
Thus, it seems at least possible that Mr. Santorum’s momentum will be more sustainable. To have a chance at winning in the delegate count, he will need to supplant Mr. Gingrich as Mr. Romney’s major rival in the South. The results in Missouri, a borderline Southern state where Mr. Santorum beat Mr. Romney by 30 points without Mr. Gingrich on the ballot, suggest that he could run strongly if Mr. Gingrich were to bow out.
It is certainly not a straightforward path, but nor is Mr. Romney’s at this point. And so far in this Republican race, betting on the underdog has yielded dividends.
Could Obama be lucky enough to see the Republicans coalesce around Santorum?  I doubt that Santorum will be able to maintain the momentum and Rickroll Mitt.  But if he does, we are in for quite the entertaining landslide in November.

Update:  That prediction is barring an economic collapse.  With a collapse, we'd be looking at President Santorum.  Maybe the Mayan calendar does indicate the end of the world.

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